LONDON—In a bold act of understatement, Fitch Ratings announced this week that climate risk might become “increasingly important” to sovereign credit ratings, particularly as large portions of the planet become uninsurable, intermittently on fire, or underwater.
To track this unfolding inconvenience, Fitch has unveiled Climate Vulnerability Signals (Climate.VS), a sophisticated tool that assigns countries a helpful number between 0 and 100 indicating how close they are to being politely downgraded for existing on Earth.
According to Fitch, about half of rated countries will score 50 or higher by 2050, meaning climate change could be bad enough to nudge their credit rating down a notch or two. Only 6% are projected to reach 70, which is Fitch’s technical term for “things have gone very wrong, but we’re still using calm fonts.”
Major fossil-fuel exporters and small nations exposed to physical risks are expected to be the most vulnerable, while everyone else is encouraged to enjoy the next decade, during which the problem remains statistically “manageable.”
Fitch notes that real-world outcomes may vary depending on future technology, mitigation efforts, and whether humanity accidentally invents a planet-sized air conditioner.
The Climate.VS tool is also intended to help long-term investors look beyond the typical rating horizon and gaze serenely into a future where numbers continue to exist, even if coastlines do not.
In related news, the Sun is hot, water is wet, and markets remain cautiously concerned.
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8m6u6c
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cytg42
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